people who follow a system
people who follow syatems could go far worse than follow carpatarn has a great strike rate of 32%....have been keeping an i on his or her tips and think it wont be long before they hit top ten........whats ur thoughts guys
Most punting manual`s will tell you people who follow systems go broke systematically. Usually because no system for selecting horses is infallable over time and by setting rules of a system it leaves no room for common sense punting.
you can go far worse than what there doing at the moment is all im saying 32% is better than a guy who picks $80 winner once every six months to keep profit
form also lies more often than not,, take a horse that wins at 20/1 plus, would it have had a good formline?, thats where systems can be beneficial, any angle taken in this game can throw up mixed results. on the value side of things you wont find a longshot 99% of the time on form.look at those horses up top in the winners window. how many of those have a good formline?
i believe you need good form but they are picking winners at 32%is what im saying so a system built around that could be very profitable thats all.....but thanks for the input
I believe most longshot come from the horses for courses category. I have also mentioned in previous posts that a single strike rate is useless, i`m sure that`s why the show three on the ladder board for each tipster. Surely common sense tells us that someone who has a consistent strike rate for last 10 days, last 30 days and more importantly their career is a good indicator of future success. If they are in profit for there career then the tips are worth buying. More importantly you can tell how many selections each tipster has provided by dividing their career outlay by 100, the bigger the number of horses the more reliable there strike rate is. However remember someone with 25% strike rate at an average price of $3 per winner is going to return less profit than someone with at 20% strike rate at an average $8 per winner. Over 100 tips the 20% strike rate returns $1600 while the 25% strike would only return $750 for a $10 win bet.
your points there are very valid steve,thanks for your input also. as far as overall goes,i cringe when i look at mine ,but in the last couple of months i\'ve changed tack quite a bit, its worked a lot better.it would help if a few of my runners found another length or so. yours are doing very well. well done
I have been following carpatarn very keenly lately especially if you are like me I like to have E/W bets.
I use a system and my strike rate is reasonablly high, I\'ve just started going full on though so the next few weeks should be the real guide. But I just changed my program so that I will look for better value butmy strike rate will probably drop a little, it\'s all a balancing act but a lot of fun.
Horses don`t know their odd`s CaptainWow, if they are going to win they will do it at 2/1 or 200/1.
It is interesting to note, that with all the talk about strike rates recently, that they have been removed on both the ladderboard and profile pages. It is also interesting that we now can find out how many winning days a tipster has against how many losing days. The average price per winner can now only be worked out over the short term manually by checking a tipsters winners and their prices over the short term. This previously could be worked out by working out how many tips had been registered, (total pyou divided by 100), and dividing by long term strike rate to get how many winners were tipped. Then divide total returns by number of winners to get average win price. We can no longer do this.
I use a system and it regularly throws up long shots with enough in between to keep your bank. I run a program to strip data from the web and then spit out the runners that meet the criteria, I've been using it since Dec (only Sat) and have doubled my bank, so pretty happy with it.
Sounds good. I do most of my longshots by gut instinct usually find a big one every few days. Hit one last nite at Newmarket (UK), $10 EW @ $51 only horse in race to win dist, track cond,venue ect. That will keep me goin` a while.
The beauty about this Competition is that it tells us not only % of wins but profits. I dont care who you are you can't eat % but you can eat profit. If a tipster is in profit and another is in debit with a slighly bigger % give me the profit everyday, I can spend that.
I agree with the profit but the % have been removed but it does compare how many winning days compared to losing days.
Lillydale give me the money in the pocket. Winning % is for the spin doctors who have no way out. This site shows long term profit, what more do you need?
Halleluliah. Someone else who punts for profit !
Consistent winning returns are what count - no use just handing over the hard earned. A system can HELP but invariably break down at some point and need constant vigilance and the ability to recognise when they are going sour to arrest a slide.
Well let me add my thoughts here.The bottom line in punting is "PROFIT",not %.When i was fielding is Sydney,we had one punter who had a strike rate of about 75%,yes he would pick 3 winners, and 7 times out of 10 he would lose.The old saying"ODDS ON,LOOK ON".He gave the punt away,and started working for me.The whole world works on PROFIT,(well my world does)Yes Chunky your right when you say give me profit any day.Have a great day everyone.
Thank you all for the support too.Regards sirkingston
I agree it is profits that all punters want.I really dont think anyone is arguing with that.
Strike Rates and the Average winner price are also vital in determining profit.
For that reason just like profits, strike rates alone are not important.
To compare different selection methods, or punters on this site, you dont just need to caculate the strike rate, but also the average winner price.
Just the same for profit....you need to know what percentage of time is the punter/system in profit, and more importantly how far into that precious resource known as "the bank" do you have to go while waiting for a turnaround.
It goes without saying, that a 50-1 winner is totally useless unless you have the money to put on it!
I agree with Cracka...a consistent stream of winners at prices which will show a profit at level stakes is needed.(that interprets to a good strike rate)
In any two scenarios, if the Profit is the same , but one has a strike rate of 22% and the other a Strike rate of 13%..which one are you going to pick?
g'day all, for starters if i was to purchase tips from anyone i would pick someone with a high strike rate --- by using 'the staking plan i use for my tips, my profit is well over whats stated in my graph -- if i'm going to list tips for anyone, i want them to hit a winner or two - not sit back and hope out of 20 selections a 20-1 gets up ---- of course a lower paying winner isn't going to be profitable over the long term if you keep your staking plan at the same level bet. --- i start at an amount; if i lose i double up on my next bet, lose again double up again, etc... -- quit when i've reached my limit for the day if i'm losing. if i'm winning -cheers! -- i had a sale last week and i thank the person appreciatively, which hit 9 winners from 24 selections -- thats what i wanna buy!!!!
hey their cap
that's one of the oldest systems going round , i was doing it one day on keno which i never play cause the odds are a joke, but my mate says tails hasn't come up for the last ten goes , give me 20 and we'll back it, so it loses and i thought oh well i'll just keep doubling till i get me 20 back, so 20 became 40, 40-80, 80-160, 160-320, 320-640, 640-1280, well i got me coin back on the 1280 and the sign on the tele comes up "someone in this club just won $2560" so they made me shout the bar!!
i hate keno
Good morning capatarn,i think everyone is talking profit v's strike rate.Take the day someone bought your tips(2008/07/05).You selected 24 races and your win strike rate was about 37%(EXCELLENT),but your PROFIT was only $00.10.
Yes Mr Big, I agree. You cannot look at Strike Rates in isolation! The average winnwer price is also vital!
It has been my experience that if a selection system cannot show a profit at level stakes, then it will also struggle on a staking plan.
A good staking plan i.e one which maintain something in the bank for double your longest run of outs, will make a level stakes profit system better.