Ok Winger i`m rather partial to horses that have spell then two or three good runs such as x63 or a a horse with 3 descending runs at last 3 starts excluding a win but ending in a place eg. 2962 providong the horse is 10/1 or better or a similar formline to 21219 at 10/1. Thesee all good examples of a great eacway chance providing they are 10/1 or better.
my late uncle , the great bush trainer from COOTAMUNDRA infamous for winning a mid week big race with SVELDT and when questioned by KENNY 'taut i taw a puddytat" CALLENDER live on air as to how he got SVELDT up for the big run... retorted with " weve been chasing rabbits all around the paddock for a week and a half", swears by doubling his stake on any nag he likes at its 4th run back from a spell... although that theory may be outdated now with the unbelievable facilities available to some top trainers to get their horse firing early in a prep now. So maybe third run back is more appropriate for the modern era as far as Unc is concerned...
g'day steve,yeah mate thats a bit similar to the doughnut system.i look at how much the horse was beaten by in the last 2 starts as well,can run 10th or worse & be beaten less than 3L & usually in that situation there might have been interferance etc.but i generally use them all most of the time whatever the margins were.
Going back about 15 or so years ago,i was told this system.i listened in to what he told me.his words were "i won't tell you all of it ,but enough to make you profit".
So from that day on i've always kept an eye on them.Back when i was told this system he showed me the proof of profit,which was quite substantial,as this guy was a couple e/w punter,he used no computer or anything & had a stack of race guides at least 5 feet high as reference.his main advide was to stick with it he said you may have 10 or 20 misses, but a hit will outway the losers.
spot on as always. id say most trainers would be aiming to peak em 3rd up
According to my class and weight ratings a large number of horses win 3rd up, (in Victoria anyway), from a spell so your on the money with that advice Chilli.
gday chilli as well n GEEZ my spellin's was bodgy there O-U-T-W-E-I-G-H , A-D-V-I-C-E. the tin lids went back to school yesty, should have went with em ?
i don't use it but i know of weights and measures. on saturdays add the price from the tele to the weight the horse is crrying, add them up for all runners in each field the one that adds up to the lowest number is the selection in the race..... ethe theory goes if it hasn't won twice at a venue by race 6 start backing them in the last two races...........
i also love a 2y.o that hasn't won in blinkers 1 st time, always big odds and often improve a couple of lengths, prime exaple of this are forty days $40 a nd sienna's fury $90 from last season.
i just ran the doughnut system over the last year,rules 3rd up from spell,beaten less than 3lengths from winner last start,and finished 10th or worse,only 20 bets no winners and one 3rd,2nd system horses third up from spell only rule,26560 bets 21percent race strike rate(multiple bets in most races)for a 21percent loss of profit,all race states were pretty much the same..if anyone has any ideas i'm quite happy to run them thru my computer,the blinker one i cant do
not sure if you can run this through your comp or not.
But if a horse is 1st or 2nd up and its previous 1st and 2nd up form combines for over 80% of its wins and PLacings then I usually have a big crack. If a horse a horse is 3rd or more up and its 1st or 2nd up stats combine for more then 80% of it Wins and Places then I tend LAY the all day
A good system to find the Favorites to Lay on Betfair that is :)
Another system for unraced 2yo`s is look at the foaling dates and take the earlest born. Theory being the older the horse the stronger the horse. Doesn`t always work but i backed Our Contrada at Flemington $150 beating its stablemate which was favourite. The quinella payed about half the win price, darn It!, for those interested. $10 the win and $10 quinella was however a nice return on $20.
andy,a little bit tough to run,best i could do is horse first or second up,72915 bets -22percent profit,if the horse had placed at least 5 times first up 106 bets for a small loss,i ran this over the last year,
EXBOOKIE,run the doughnut through your system over the same period mate,with runner drawn 10 or inside. dont take runs from spell or beaten margins into account. see what that throws up? cheers
goldenwing,im not sure what rules to include can you list each rule individually,first rule horse drawn 1 to 10,next rule....?
als EX BOOKIE... do you think you can factor a rise in distance for those third up... like somewhere between 1200m first up and 1400 to 1600m third up?? Obviously the sprinters are generally firing early so it may be more applicable if there is a distance factor involved up to the mile... gotta say im impressed with the strike rate for third up at 21% but not so much with the 21% loss of profit... on the right path but we need to tweak it... what about taking out all the 3rd up runners who havent won or placed first up???
mate told me a system he likes without doing any form, can't use it myself or my hours of form study would be obselete! Add the last two starts together, e.g 34, plus the barrier (before scratchings i assume) e.g. 2. Any totalling less then 10 (not equal to) is a bet.
Love your work on all these ex-bookie.
One I like to use finding many longshots is horses who are third up, first up were beaten less margin then second up, over 1400m+. Basically working on the 'second up syndrome' theory, that after a big first up run, second up can be flat. Many 3rd up winners, as many have said already.
POINT IN CASE: ASCOT R8... 4 horses are having third run back from spell... i have had $10 E/w on all 4 of them for the name of science... 1400m is the distance so statistically we are on a winner here hahaha,, 2,8,10 and 13 and correct me if im wrong GW but the 13 suits your system mate... and also looks pretty good!!
$80 outlay $52 back... not sure how close the second horse came to winning that though... wouldve been nice!!
chilli,rule horse third up,1st run from spell, distance 1000 to 1200,2nd up 1200 to 1400 one year 11510 bets -18p.c 17p.c race strike rate(multiple bets in races)if distance change third up was 100metres 1137 bets 146 wins კp.c p.o.t 12p.c strike rate,if we refine it and only include horses running over 1400m 3rd up we would have 406 bets 58 wins 14p.c strike rate and a whopping 51percent p.o.t.
rule 1 horse must be 3rd up,2nd rule 1st up distance 1000 to 1200,3rd rule distance 2nd up 1300m,4th rule todays distance must be 1400m,406 bets 51p.c p.ot
chili,summary of 2nd system,rules horse must be 3rd up,first up distance 1000 to 1200,2nd up distance 1200 to 1400m,distance this race must be exactly 100m more than 2nd up,1137 bets for 13.2 p.c profit on turn over
great thread guys....has me frantically scanning through the form guide here in the uk to try the system at the all weather meets today.
I like the "10/20" theory - a horse that has run 1st/2nd then got a duck egg by 3l or less next start, as Goldenwing said, often bad luck cost them some ground or up in grade, and they can bounce back at better odds (like the "BB" system). try this with horses that have an overall good SR eg 20%w/50%p or better
But I've got a million systems....pick a topic lol
exbookie how did you treat races where more than one selection to work out P.O.T. ?
I'd like to auto-generate this list, justing checking where to get the info from.
floggas,these results included races with multiple selections,win strike rate is a race strike,profit on turn over is based on backing every selection at level stakes whether there is one selection or multiple selections in the race.eg i might back 3 runners in a race have 10 dollars on each horse and win back 33dollars,my race strike rate would be 100 percent and profit on turnover is 10 percent
i would like to invent a system maybe mixing up the weights and measures to include barriers.
i think add up the odds in the paper with the barrier, this gives the horses a ranking, the lower the number the higher rating. if 2 are the same number split them by rating the one with lowest weight higher. then you could refine the criteria to also include things like if the top rated horse has won at distance won at track and got atleast a 20% win strike rate and 50% place strike.you might not get a selection each race adnd would probably get boring but would probably turn a profit i reckon