Qld Breeders & Tattersall's Winter Stakes
I read this morning that they will not run ortensia if it is worse than dead..... So if your punting on the early markets your betting against the weather as wellView all 37 comments
lay ortensia back marveen and tempest tost(good horse seems to have a good record with the gauc and has won bris way of going
I hold a completely different view to Ortensia. If she starts, she wins. Simple as that. Nothing in this race is going better than her or has more scope. She has options to sit back or race on the pace, whatever ground she gets will be far better than the Stradbroke and I fully expect her to win. Forensics has a touch of class but no run for a while concerns me. Marveen is one of my favourite horses and is good e/w odds. Illuminates is even better e/w odds after flashing home last start. The fact that this is Ortensia's 7th start this prep means nothing as far as I am concerned. They won't beat her imo. This is a filly with extraordinary potential and class on her side, a gun jockey, a better surface and a wide barrier that doesn't phase her. I can't back her pre-post due to the possibility of her being scratched by anything around $3 on raceday is generous as far as I am concerned.
ORTENSIA is a definite starter mate... its a beautiful day here and track will be firm... its interesting formlines but the one thing that worries me about ORTENSIA is the wet track runs... brilliant absolutely...but i just have that feeling that regardless of what NOONAN says that she handles the wet better than most and that that form may have flattered her a bit... her run in the GLENLOGAN PARK STAKES is the best pointer for this i reckon but that still is a shadow of what FORENSICS can do... still there is no doubt ORTENSIA is first class and i wouldnt be laying her cos she can win if she is still up... FORENSICS is our best mare and will take a ton of beating at the weights... great race with ABSOLUT GLAM back to her best with blinkers back on in the straddy and she is a marvellous horse at her best... MARVEENS form is outstanding for this and she definatley doesnt handle the wet very well so last run was enormous... no value ORTENSIA understand why the bookies dont want a bar of her but this should be 5-1 the field in my books.
Break for FORENSICS does nothing to harm her chances as she is a super horse fresh. If the track stays dry there is nothing that can beat her bar a McEvoy slaughter. $6 will do me.
Danehill Smile should win this with normal luck in race ....... multiples 6,2,12,17,18,19,20
i was concerned about the lack of pace in this race but tempest tost is drawn in 20 and will hunt for the lead, i also think welcome site will push forward from out wide and a few dranw well will kick up and want a handy position so tempest may have to do a little work early to cross, being a big field means runs will come early so i can see them going quick for the first 2 furlongs before easing up down the back and quickening again from the 800 or 600, should suit some backmarkers but luck in running will be a big factor, illuminates looks great value with obvious choices ortensia and forensics hardest to beat...i'm a massive orensia fan and reckon she will be a champ but i'd rather have a small wager on illuminates each way than a plonk on ortensia...lets hope its a truly run race. its the least we deserve after enduring wet tracks all autumn and winter
I'm happy to lay Ortensia as well, but only because of the great depth in the field and you have to think that luck will be a factor in this one. There is sure to be some hard luck stories coming out of this race. I reckon that half the field at least could win the race, but I have a feeling that if ILLUMINATES can get a better run than she got in the Dane Ripper then she is a chance at good odds.
Go for some value here people!
Go for some value here people!
Ortensia out of the winter stakes
Imananabaa has been trialling very well, definately one for the multiples!! the very rough shot of zilzie could snare a top four at big odds!
Shame that about Ortensia - reportedly has a hoof problem.. I just cannot see how FORENSICS will lose this on a dry track.
1 person has mentioned the likely winner.....Chilli (and that gives me even more confidence !) Absolut Glam e/w special ! Ortensia out helps and the only other winning chance is Forensics as she is the other top class mare. Stick with the class horses here.....
Interesting decision as Williams said the injury wasn't severe and if she was older she would of run but I will trust Noonan's judgement. Can't go past Forensics now.
problem is now the dynamics have changed... TEMPEST will kick in the straight with SUBTLE COVE and then MARVEEN on their hammer... EXPRESS AIR will have peeled out to make its run and FORENSICS will look the winner winding up at this point with ABSOLUT GLAM the final say. There is probably another knockout trifecta horse in here somewhere that will come into it and ruin my best laid plans but the core of this race should come from these 6 with SUBTLE COVE the value and throw in ILLUMINATES instead of TEMPEST who should tire late if you prefer.
ortensia is scratched
When you are on the best mare in the land that can run faster sectionals than any other in the race which mind you is a G1 then get her into clear running at the top of the straight and she will do the rest.. Instead McEvoy rides patiently waiting for an inside run and by the time she gets into open space the race is over... Ahhh I love the bloke...
thats why i mentioned forensics as my lay of the day. mcevoy is an absolute dud...
Forensics has won 2 races in the last year & I didn't ever really expect it to win this & i doubt after mucking upt he start many jockey's would of managed to get it past the post 1st, strikes me as a horse now that needs t get into a prep can't just do a hit and run.
disagree AUSSIE... they backed this thing like it was unbeatable... it was ready to win but everything went horribly wrong... cand freaking believe i had the winner and a 50-1 shot and STILL missed the trifecta... love PRIMA NOVA too... aaaarghhhh... each way on SUBTLE COVE eased the pain somewhat.
I don't think the Snowden camp were the people backing it, spoke to Pete before the race and said missing the track gallop at the Goldy really hurt her since she hadn't started for 2 months but being a group 1 was never concidering not running her unless wet and got a shrug of the shoulders after the race. I'm not a massive Mckevoy fan but there was a wall of horses down the straight and just couldn't get out which is what Jimmy said about my horse and Clarry blew up at him about but later appoligised for. Hard luck stories everwhere but that's racing...good luck if you got the first 4!!!!!
congrats on your bloke too DORF... she looks a promising type... mate i was so close to that trifecta and F4 you wouldnt believe it... had 3 of the first 4 home... i dont take the exotics very much cos i dont like the odds.. but if i was a serious exotic punter i reckon i would be in the bahamas right now... buggar... didnt like PRIMA back to the 1400m but couldnt believe the odds... ahhh hindsight damn it janet!!!
No disrespect Dorf but the other horses bar AB GLAM are not in FORENSIC's league in this race.. 90% fit with a clear run she would have still won.. I agree there were horses everywhere but thats the point.. Don't get the horse in such a position when you know you are on the best horse in the race.. How do you end up stuck inside horses when you draw barrier 9?.. And don't worry about Jimmy, Clarry wasn't the only trainer pissed with the way he rode yesterday.. Yep there are hard luck stories everywhere but believe me mate a lot of the time its jockeys not following instructions.. Jimmy was clearly told on one ride to make sure he makes his run down the outside in the straight.. Where was he??? Held up on the rails with excuses for days..
i gotta disagree MONEY... i reckon PRIMA NOVA has earnt a crapload of respect after that run... she is a super mare... totally agree with the rest though.
None taken Money.. I think Clarry Knew Dorf Wasn't In the class of horses she was racining against but you are only 3 once and being a filly you have to race in these type of races at G1.. In what you say about the horse being boxed in(forensics) if every jockey let the fav have their way there would be no betting. That's what jockey's do, if you're on the best horse you ride it like it is, if you don't get the LUCK in running, well it's bad luck in my opinion. Have had a few drinks today after backing Ample Gains in Sha Tin so this may be rubbish, but i think i make sense!!!
Ample Gains in HK? I'll say! Well played, RunDorf. Sterling collect.
Yeh Smallest bet of the day, $50 e/w and i get that, shouted JD for the boys for a few hours till the misses found out, hence why i'm home now.
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