Okay, score this one for the bookmakers (for now), but in hind-sight several long standing trends held up.
Dunaden and Americain's weights and ages were a red-flag, but surely one or the other was expected to at least place? There were concerns about Red Cadeaux going first-up again as he's a year older and the field was deeper. Plus, that unlucky barrier draw (#18) streak lives on for at least another year! Likely would've benefited from an Aussie lead-up, at least so We could've seen his current form?
On the flip-side Green Moon was an early Melbourne Cup favourite with very good odds, until his Cox Plate run. Which brings back the Moonee Valley vs. Flemington debate, and the great points made by many.
Regarding the 2013 Melbourne Cup, should be interesting to see if these and other trends hold up, but this much is certain many of this year's big names won't be back. (7 & 8 year-olds). Among those with a good chance of returning include many Aussie bred or trained horses- Champion Green Moon (6 yo) Fiorente (5 yo) Glencadam Gold (5 yo), Kelinni (5 yo), Zabeelionaire (4 yo), Lights of Heaven (5 yo) and Ethiopa (4 yo).
I am hoping trainer L.Cumani brings MOUNT ATHOS back over for another crack at the Cup ...... His was the run of the race for mine and was unlucky to just miss out of the placings after nearly getting bowled over twice in the latter stages of this years running of the race .
Cumani likely will if he earns the chance. Mount Athos is six, and lightly raced? Have to give Mount Athos credit, 80 day spell and the record of horses making their first-ever Australian start in the Melbourne Cup is rather bad.
Aleigiance (Pommie biased ...) would have to be with European horses for next year too , Green Moon started life in UK , as did Fiorente and Jakkalberry (though originally raced in Italy), so that's a cert .... as for potential horses , I think John Gosden (UK) might prime a couple for the race next year , i think that Gatewood might have p***** him off with all the effort he put in , and not even to get a start , also I am surprised that Aiden O Brien didnt bother , but he's a bit short of 2 milers at the moment with just a couple of aged ones who wouldnt have stepped up to the plate, well formulator if youre still keen on Mount Athos then here is your chance (maybe) .....http://www.smh.com.au/sport/horseracing/internationals-to-target-japan-after-cup-misses-20121107-28xkx.html
Correct me if i'm wrong , but i think the last time Aiden O Brien had runners in the cup ( may of been 2009 , not sure ) he was heavily criticised for how his horses ran in the race ..... they certainly dictated the terms setting a cracking pace ( by Australian standards ) and were some way out in front , but they were a spent force before they entered the home straight and were left for dead ...... I am not sure if the trainer has been back since .
Its so early but IMO the internationals racing first up, regarding their class was poor. However horses who have raced in Australia the previous year when compared to the first starters this year in the cup for mine there is a significant difference. This years cup will be not a great form line, Jakellberry depending obviously the field in the Japan cup will run last.. If you look at his runs to date for the exception of the cup he was terrible. Thats my opinion anyway. If you read my posts on the cup I said Galielios Choice shouldn't even be in the field. His run was very poor considering he was on speed and loomed. He shouldn't of been in the cup, like Unusal Suspect. 2012, was a cup which was run to suit the roughies and well done to them. Am I being harsh?
Interesting stuff! Keen to learn more. @whingepomme did you get 'Mooned'? @eeelz P-D-L is a great early nom. @Forumator Aiden O'Brien's a tremendous trainer, but likely to keep his charges in Europe and the US where he's had success. (Breeders Cup). Read something about travel and other factors? @Calabisca I thought the field was deep but agree about Unusual Suspect given his age (9 yrs) and previous form. I'll also be keen to see Jakkalberry's showing in the Japan Cup. @TheTrialFile Mount Athos did well all things considered, and should be interesting to see him go in the Japan Cup along with Jakkalberry, possibly Red Cadeaux and an Aussie horse or two.
There's a list here if anyone's interested. http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/melbourne-cup/melbourne-cup-horses/