He sprinted home the last 600m and 200m the fastest in the Geelong Cup, from the position he was in and the crawling pace the race was run in he did as well as any horse could. The leaders were just flying the last 600m
I studied up on Maluckyday a bit more, and given the equality of the field I'm just going to say this..
Maluckyday is the right age, weight, gender and has a decent (statistically) barrier draw.
Kelinni is a good story, would be amazing, but even though he's the light-weight he's likely running on fumes given his quick back-up and ninth start in short order. Need to dig further on Lights of Heaven..
yk93, that'd be great, but my concern (for what it's worth) is that Kelinni's taking his ninth start this season. I think his Lexus win was great, and backing up as the light-weight shouldn't be an issue, I'm just wondering if he's running on fumes by now..
I just can’t warm to Ethiopia. Nothing in the AJC Derby has franked its win. OP didn’t frank the Cox Plate run in the Mackinnon.
Maluckyday looked good in the BC but it was beaten by Tanby. Would you consider backing Polish Knight or Tanby in this race?
Dunaden’s trainer said it was only 80% fit in the CC. Did you see its ears the last 50m? It was really feeling the weight, maybe.
Kellini’s win in the Lexus franked the win of Glencadam Gold in the Metrop. Did a lot of work to lead the CC although Pumper said he found the lead easy. Didn’t look it. Think GG will get an easier lead this time.
Still, Damien Oilver is riding in inspired form and Americain looks cherry for this race.
Cup day weather forecast is cloudy, isolated showers. May bring Tac de Boistron and Galileos Choice into calcs.
With 300m to go its Glencadam Gold being challenged by Green Moon with Maluckyday and Mourayan hacking away. Now Mount Athos gains a split and Kellini running a bit of a race. Then Tac de Boistron and Galileos Choice.
Now here come the big 3 Americain, Dunaden and Red Cadeaux down the centre of the track.
At the 200 GM has claimed the lead with MA looming but will need to get a wriggle on.
In the final 50 it’s MA with the long striding Americain the threat. Ollie getting everything out of Americain, they hit the line and it’s ?
For 3rd probably Dunaden, valliant in defeat, nosing out RC and GM. Then GC, Kellini, Zabeelionnaire a bit of a run, Maluckyday, Niwot, LOH, TDB, Mourayan, Fiorente, MQFP and Jakkalberry all 3 never a chance, Winchester, GG knocked up, Voila Ici, Ethiopia never a chance, Cavalryman, Sanagas, Precedence and US tailed off.
If you can drag yourself away from backing the top 2, and I'm struggling to do that, then Kellini is the value runner by the length of the Flemmo straight. It's a $12-14 chance for me. Still won't win though.
Interesting debate about Kellini, his chances and his recent success on Saturday... in the UK (take Aiden O Brien for example , a top Irish trainer who has trained more English classic winners in UK this year than any other trainer), and as such like many would regard a couple of weeks or even longer as being too short a window for which to re-introduce a horse into a big race, recent failures for class horses who were re-introduced relatively quickly include Camelot, (following ST Leger to Arc), and Excelebration following QEII to the USA and Santa Anita, whether or not the quick re-introduction is the sole reason for their failure (given of course other factors), I personally think that caution to the wind would have to be thrown at any horse who has run as recently as the weekend before the actual Cup, i.e., in Kellini's case and in such a demand ing race as the Lexus, I am also aware however of the propensity of horses to re-appear more quicker (maybe on average in comparison to French/UK horses), with some trainers opting for a run in a race as being an equal if not better substitute over and above perhaps a more lacklustre gallop, a point in question might be Gatewood having to appear and race 3 times in short succession when on Saturday he seemingly felt the effects of the previous two races. So for this reason I would exercise caution over Kelinni, though not to say he cannot win given his low weight and seeming quality. What does anybody else think ?
For what its worth, here is my pennies worth on a few in the cup field, or at least a couple of the horses that I've spent a bit of time assessing ...... Glencadam Gold , this is a fascinating horse , my conclusion on this horse (I'll stop whinging like a pomme if he wins the cup), but bottom line is when racing in low quality fields he's far from poor in fact outstanding , take the UK before he hit down under , and under Henry Cecil, between Oct 2010 and 14th May 2011 , (note all races below class 3 and below £10,000), he finishes in top 3 every time, then following 3 races at notably higher level (including group level), he finished well down in the field, notably 47L behind Fiorente in a classy affair back in June 2011, seemingly same has applied to Oz unless anyone can correct me done the business in OZ until he meets some real class horses like he did in the Caulfield Cup and he's down the field again ..... sorry Glencadam but not for me for the winner (not to day his current price isn't good value at least for each way) ... and so speaking of Fiorente , this horse I think is undoubtedly a value call for the cup , whether he can step up to win is another thing , but his previous form would have to give him a solid chance, notably to include : beating Red Cadeaux and Joshua Tree at Group 2 level (joshua tree is a class horse that recently won a high grade US race), in July (although it has to be said that the form reversed most recently in France),, my only query is whether he can win in Group one company, worth noting that both red cadeaux and dunaden had fiorente back some 8 lengths in the field in the hardwicke a quality group 2 affair, though over the shorter distance, with Jakkalberry between them ....whether fiorente will stay though is also open to debate since he has not gone over (seemingly) a mile and a half (2400m) in his career in Europe , so can he stay the distance remains to be seen , and so onto Jakkalberry , for me too high a price , least for place terms , but whether he wins , he would have to really step up to the plate , lets not get too carried away with his success in the USA as the company he kept that day doesnt look to hot ... but Jakkallberry has far from been disgraced in class company including up against dunaden in uk and hong kong , interestingly he beat Volia Ici back a place away in Milan in Sep 2011 in a class 1 italian affair ,,,, and so onto Weld's horse Galileo's choice , for me the best value against potential to win , since Weld is class operator who has a habit of turning up anywhere and winning against the very best , he recently won a high class affair aat Ascot with Rite of Passage a horse not seen since a 510 day lay off , but a horse with arguably a similar progressive profile to Galileos Choice , now we know that Galileos Choice is a stayer in fact more than proven in stamina since he is flat come hurdler returned to flat, progressive in profile lighlty raced although note that he ore thank likely NEEDS softer going for a real chance at this level, so worth waiting for money for this one to see how the going will be ,,, and so onto Red Cadeaux , not much to say but a class horse who has not been beaten by more than 4 and a half lengths in class company since mid 2011, and won at 1m 6f this year (longer distance), for me not sure if he is great value at some 10/1 however , he must have a great chance , and now onto tac De Boistron , for value this is another monster price , but he seemingly likes the softer ground least looking at his wins in France , he is a class horse and lets not get too carried away with his last race , since the way I saw it I am not sure he was ran to win that race , moreover , to run out and lets not forget at a shorter distance as the tacster is a real stayer once again like Gal Choice , for me a an absolute must for the each way bet. Thats all for now sorry about the length ozzie comrades.... thanks for reading..
Basically the Melbourne Cup use to be a race for old handicappers and most of them use to race on Derby Day ...... but times have changed however with the advent of strong European weight for age types entering the frey .... I can not see how a horse can do its absolute best backing up after only 3 days . the way i look at it is this ...... if a human competed in a half marathon and then was expected to do his or her best in a full marathon a short time later , do you honestly think he/she would be as well prepared for the race as somebody else ? .... personally i don't think so . I wish Kellini good luck in the Melbourne Cup ..... he is going to need it . As for the connections of Gatewood , they were desperately trying to get the horse a start in the Melbourne Cup , but with all of its recent racing , the effort took its toll and he raced like a tired horse in the Lexus Stakes . Maybe if the connections had given up on the idea , they could of prepared the horse for the Sandown Classic ( i think they still call it by that name ) next week , which would of been a far more suitable race for it than the Melbourne Cup would of been anyway , with the queery about it running the 3200 m out strongly , but i doubt they will bother to go down that road now , more likely spelling the horse . @whingepomme ..... very informative and interesting reading of your posting .... you don't seem to mention Mount Athos though , do you have any opinion of him ? Good luck to you and everybody else in the Melbourne Cup .... ( horses included ) .
whingepomme Interesting stuff, read both posts. The Jumps experience that Galileo's Choice has and his success after converting to a runner, makes him an interesting chance. He's also well drawn and has a good weight.
Definitely belongs in the mix for me, so I'm down to my fourth and it's between Cavalryman and Galileo's Choice. Will be checking this thread for other opinions, and best of luck to everyone!
Thanks Formulator , for the post , indeed Gatewood was make or break in fact he was my a reasonable ante-post gamble for me but as soon as the handicapper offered just 1kg as opposed to 1.5kg I was of of him and sold the bet as quick as usain bolt out the traps !! Mount Athos , indeed this one continues to perplex me , indications are that he will get the distance (a winner at 1m 6f comfortably) but mid to late season 2011 he failed to win races in reasonable company although not far away , he subsequent year 2012 has shown improvement and 3 wins from 3 is impressive but not in the company arguably that the likes of red cadeaux, dunaden and jakkallberry have ran in, but Mount Athos is undoubtedly a progressive horse at only 5 years old , has won impressively this year 3 times , and possibly primed by Cumani (first and foremost) for the cup in OZ over and above any UK pursuits ,,,, so will he win ,,well he;s well handicapped for sure (think he is around the 53 mark from memory for the cup), in relation say to Dunaden , at 58kg (but like the draw I dont get too carried away by weights I watched a horse that had not won in an age win a testing handicap in UK with a huge field carrying top weight through grit and determination alone against fitter leaner at the time horses), and hes primed for the race ,, will I back him no he is too short for me , do I think he is a danger , yes , will he win ,, he for sure has a good chance and cannot be discounted for any reason , incidentally , mount athos is comparable in class least this season to two horses times up and high jinx (getting the better of them), who incidentally (both high jinx and times up) in turn had the better of cavalryman in another race over the 2m with Cavalryman some 6L behind those, so why not quickly on Cavalyrman , in short I dont see him winning easily , however note that the jockey in Detorri is a master internationally and if there is one think godolphin have a knack of doing is pulling out a surprise winner of a horse whose previous form has far from sparkled , (note English St Leger ,,,though not comparable), so cannot write cavalryman off completely but he would really have to step up , thanks
I cant have kelinni on the fact that he wouldnt even be there if dare to dream wasnt extremely unlucky, but thats also sour grapes on my part.. At this stage im down to 8 horses
Duneden - 59kgs Amercain - 8yr old Red cadeaux - first up Malacky day - form Fiorente - i dont know, maybe shouldnt even have him but good value Mouruyan - over a month between runs Ethiopia - did the cox plate take too much out of him, maybe next year Mount athos - ???? Who knows, ill probably leave him out though
Red cadeaux has the least amount of question marks for me
1. Red cadeuax 2. Mouruyan, dunaden, americain, maluckyday?
Anyway cant wait, got the day off and as usual its gonna be a ripper . Good luck all
interesting dmpllY, I dont see why Americain has become all the fuss. Americain has steadily come in on price and media would point to his so called reasonable (okay indisputable) run in the Caulfield , but lets look to the winner not the nearly won .(s) ..... Americain has a great chance nonetheless and cannot be discounted , but at his current price way to short .... as for horse I would love to see win that would be Red Cadeuax to reverse placings
Cheers for the detailed reply concerning Mount ASthos whingepomme ..... from what i understand you reside in the UK , would this be correct ? .As it happens i am a fellow countryman who is presently living in Australia .... nice knowing you . I recall something about trainer Dermot Weld wanting to purchase Mount Athos and he describes it as the horse he most fears in the race , would that be correct to your knowledge ? Anyway i wish you all the best in the Melbourne Cup ....... Regards
yes mate hence whingepomme .... yes I heard the same re Mount Athos , think its posted in the forum here , maybe someone can add here , yes I live in UK at the moment , many thanks for the good wishes and good to know you too ... all the best to you, all and sundry ..
God save the queen ! Lol ... Firm track lads don't forget , 2 horse race for mine , the 2 proven Aussie performers are in hot form quinella'd race last year this is no harder and they have improved .. Red cadeaux and Dunaden , red is a better horse this year , better form and at the weights will beat Dunaden , also been wearing black caviars wet suit around so looking good is feeling good ..haha ...Will get snagged back from 18 one off at the tail and when all the jocks go early as usual will have the last run down the straight with one of the best waiting jocks in m.rodd in the race , Dunaden will give Red a lovely run in to the race and won't be far away with its ears pinned back trying its guts out as usual , but Reds freshness and weight advantage will lift it to a half length win ... Race is simple in my eyes and I will not be looking at the form again !! Good luck