Melbourne Cup value
one theory is if i back the best 11 horses with the current favourite at 11/1. anything at better odds wins, youre in profit for the race arent you? thats nearly 1/2 the field for a guaranteed result.
I backed Galileos Choice by mistake at 50-1 early for the Melbourne Cup ( I thought it was another horses) a couple of months ago. Also have Glencadam Gold at 150-1 , and Quest For Peace at 26-1. They are my top 3 chances going at the moment .
Get on Mount Athos. $10 is good value when it win it.
ime liking the recent runs of jackalberry.
@montah. I agree that Jackkalberry could well be the knock out horse in both cups. Great 3rd in the Sheama Classic behind Cirrus Des Angles & St Nicholas Abbey, then OK in the Hardwicke, then impressive win in the American St Leger.
It's A Dundeel wins derby into Red Cadeaux and Green Moon in the Melbourne Cup. Usually wrong with these things but the Spring looks a cracker
Niwot is plugging along nicely - 2 time winner over 3200m, last years favourite...almost forgotten this year at the moment and won a Sydney Cup since...chance at odds.
Jackkalberry the next Vintage Crop?
This could be a great thread if the possible starters and odds were here in. Haven't looked hard, but it would be great to see a list showering trainers and country of origin as well. Me missus liked Jakkalberry, just by looking at the field, so I'm sticking with her. I'm punting on a very wet track and whatever can handle it.
I'm with SeaDorf, it's a long road for Brigantin but if he makes the M cup field, he'd be a bloody good bet... I heard they are going to the Geelong Cup with him mate. I Don't particularly like him over 2400m but I don't know why they aren't trying for the Caulfield Cup as he gets a start in MCup if he wins...You just get a pat on the back @ Geelong lol
And if he wins the Geelong Cup & manages to get into the Melbourne cup, every bugger will be on him thinking he'll do a Dunaden (or Americain) & win The Melbourne cup, myself included :)
Glencadum Gold is my tip for the Melbourne cup as i have always liked Metropolitan form into the cup and have got a few long shot place getters up as normally only one runner from the metro bothers to continue on to the cup. The way he won, he "might & power" win both CC & MC
I also like Niwot but Sydney Cup into Melb Cup doesn't fit ! It tends to go the other way, Mel cup winner into Sydney cup victory. Dare To Dream could very well be a smokey. Very heavily backed 2 starts ago ran ok, then ran on very well last start. Keep a close eye on Dare To Dream !
thezig, everything you mentioned can be found here- http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/melbourne-cup/melbourne-cup-overseas-horses/ The current noms, countries, trainers and access to a look at early odds.
Thanks Scott, silly me just clicked 'melbourne cup' and got past runners, didn't see all the other options, must have double clicked.
Brigantin ...... Get on this lads , i have just done a stack of form on the internationals who will dominate our great race again , Looks really progressive has form thru Shahwardi who was super impressive today it actually beat it home last run at W>F>A and drops to 53kgs for the melb cup , $21 looks good value , wet or dry doesnt matter ....
I'm on him in some doubles rancho. The internationals will kill us again this year but i dont care it's great they are here can you imagine what the field would be like without them! Sh#thouse!!!
Brigantin has also beat Dunaden and red cadeaux home too mate, and has beat Americain home every time he has met him, along with Manighar...Hope he makes the field
ranchoruler, I agree, both Brigantin and Shahwardi deserve to be high on the list.
I think all the internationals are very even. In saying that they all appear to be better stayers than our locals. It's good being able to read the internationals track/training notes on racing victoria website this year as I think the horse who travels best and aclimatises best to our conditionals will win the cup. On overseas form Mount Athos, Brigantin & Jakkalberry look nice types. The buzz around Werribee is that Brigantin & Jakkalberry and thriving here. I think Brigantin will relish the 3200m more than Jakkalberry. Need to back Brigantin before he wins the Geelong cup. I never like backing horses that have had a crack at the cup before. History says the rarely win it again. I think Americain and Dunaden are big players in the CC this year. I don't think Dunaden can win with 58kg's. Americain will beat him home in the cup. Best local chance is Ethiopia. Watch for him to be getting home hard in the cox plate
Is Americain still trained by Hayes ? P.P says its that french bloke , did it go back to him ? If i did i would rate it but if its still with Hayes wouldnt touch it ... That French trainer is just a genius ....
rancho the french took him back i think. and u r spot on abt hayes..what happened to him?
he went back after his lacklustre runs in Sydney
Ah very good , hope they get their horse back ! The way that SHAHWARDI was turned out was breathtaking just looked pure muscle i could see it in the mounting yard ( on t.v ! ) was a bit agitated but ready its eyes were bulging and burst on to the track , like a prizefighter ready to explode ... haha .. I didnt back it but knew it was one to follow too late now as the price is gone but was very impressive the best stayer i have seen this season , hadnt won for 3 years but when these get a kill it can turn its confidence and they can string a few together , big effort from the trainer to get it to acclimatize and would have improvement in it also , VPMontjeu dont know what has happend to Hayes might have fallen behind the times in his training methods and we cant say he didnt have the cattle as he took 5 lengths off Americain in a few months !! Also has had a good few running well in blue diamonds etc .. over the last few years but they just dont go on ?? Seems to have hit the wall after Mcevoy started his own stables maybee Hayes was just a crap trainer all along but his staff were good ... Wouldnt be training my horse thats for sure it would be going straight to Alain de Royer-Dupre .....
gatewood has a problem apparently, and please be careful before punting on him guys.
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