Always interesting who gets into the race. Looks like, sadly, Brigantin will not be in!
The up coming ballot exempt races are:
Lexus Stakes - Gatewood, Tanby, Permit, Excluded, Reuben Percival, Kelinni, Sabrage, Ibicenco, Spechenka, Dame Claire, Fictional Account, Peal of Bells Victoria Derby - Should be won by Its a Dundeel Mackinnon Stakes - Should be won by Ocean Park
So is likely the winner of Lexus Stakes will add a horse into the 24. That is unless Glencadam Gold runs a good race and wins.
I have assumed Green Moon will not run. So that leaves us with this ...
Yeah you may be right mate, I actually think he is a very good chance in the Cup too if he gets there. Ya just feel for connections so much, to do all the hard work and put the time and the money in and then fall at the last hurdle when they are so close to the biggest race in the Nation and half a chance to run well in it, whether you like the horse or not it's just terrible.
Ok - have been googling the horse and see the weight advantage he has over Dunaden via the Brown Panther form line. Problem is that he has to peak twice in the season and weights dont always tell the story. I see his work has also been good at Weribee. Ok, so tempted to make my trifecta (boxed) ....
Americain Dunaden Red Cadeaux Mount Athos Maluckyday Galileo's Choice
I can't get you a winner Scott, but I believe Persian Punch was 9 years old when he ran in his second Melbourne Cup and ran a place (3rd behind Ethereal I think?). He may have been 8 thought, I'll have a sniff around.
Hi boys and girls, Long time reader, first time poster! Just joined after readin this forum over the last few years. I'm an NRL punter, who has trained himself to only bet on the Melbourne Cup carnival (mainly because I win when I can trust that every horse is trying to win). after months of research, has anyone been able to find a video of Mt Athos - apart from the one the racingvictoria website has? I am keen on it, but Dunaden and My Quest For Peace are the main dangers in my book.
In regards to the 59kgs with Dunaden - yes history is a massive disadvantage and weight can stop a train. But does anyone remember when the bottom weight in the cup was likely to be 53kgs? Thats only a 6kg difference over the whole field. My question is: What horse can Dunaden NOT give up to 6kg to and beat? I think only Mt Athos is the danger.
he always has had the wood over Red Cadeaux, whether in handicap or WFA. Same with Red Cadeaux. But I do see your point. And I see Red Cadeaux as a "back me next start" horse, rather than a winner like Dunaden.
scottybulldog, I see your point but Cup history is full of lighter-weights taking out favoured top-weights. Last year some people were saying the same thing about Americain, that in spite of his weight they couldn't find a horse that could beat him..
Well the horse that beat him (Dunaden) carried 54.5kgs, the same weight Americain had when he won his Cup.
Dunaden has always only just had the wood on Red Cadeaux and it's been at level weights. Both horses have far superior form this year in Europe compared to last year. This year Red Cadeaux get's 3.5kg's off Dunaden. Dunaden has already run here and impressively won the Caulfield Cup. If Red Cadeaux is always just behind him at level weights well you can certainly make a case that the 3.5kg's weight difference will prove to be the difference between them this time. Whatever beats Red Cadeaux wins the race in my book.
If anyone hasnt seen the Hardwicke stakes replay, have a watch on youtube. You can forget that My Quest For Peace ran as it was trapped very wide all race and did it very tough. It also likes a firm track and it was slow. Dunaden 2nd, Red Cadeaux 3rd, Jakkalberry 5th, Fiorente 6th (cant possibly win MC after box seating the whole race). Dunaden beat Red Cadeaux home by just over a length at level weights, but he was going home at twice the pace Red Cadeaux was, plus Dunaden was flattened in the straight.
Had a look at that race just now. Dunaden lost his position and fell back and then had to start late and then was flattend and then came again and at the end was going better than anyone including the winner. Far superior to Red Cadeaux really.
I just dont think the weight pull is enough for Red Cadeaux, Craig Williams thinks its now a 4 length better horse (it will need to be though) and its owner said last night Dunaden was only 80% fit in the CC. Having said all this I'll be backing Mount Athos to beat Dunaden and My Quest For Peace. $200 on MA and Dunaden, $50 each way MQFP.
There seems to be alot of talk about history and previous events (particularly in the media) which is absolutely absurd! Particularly in the papers with winning/losing barriers, numbers, Jockeys etc.etc.etc.....don't fall for the trap...weight is a different story as there are a multitude of examples of weight carrying in all races run.
There are 24 runners in a MC and there have only been 151 runnings of the event, so don't get carried away in all the BS the media writes about the history...statistically there will be HUGE variations and anomalies in the short term, and the long term could be in the thousands or more of an event.