Martingale Betting System
The popular pick has got about a 45% strike rate and we have been doing some analysis to see how it may perform with the Martingale Betting System. As most of you will know you need to get 2/1 for it to work efficiently but as the odds can sometimes be more or less than 2/1 it tends to balance out. Click here to check out the examples using BEST TAB price and the Betfair price.
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Kagan: have considered running syndicates for those interested? Maybe you could take an up front fee + the starting bank money from those involved. Eg: Get 10 people interested and run the system with a starting bank of say $6375 (8 bets) then each person pays $637.50 plus whatever you would want to charge for admin and things like that.
I'm sure there would be people interested but unable to place a bet every single day and would pay to have it done for them. You could place a bet each day for 6 days but if you miss it on the 7th that could ruin you!
Is this a viable idea? I'd be interested in helping out if it is.
Hmm, I don't want to sound negative here but I wouldn't touch the Martingale system with a ten foot pole. I think doubling up after every loss will eventually lead to catastrophic failure over the long term.
the system works very well as long as your bank is big enough to cover a run of outs , i think i might use this system on swick when its back .
thats the most ridiculolus system i have evr heard,great way to go broke,what you are basically betting is that the next bet in sequence as twice as much chance to salute than the previous,even if you have a 50percent strike rate you will run into a sequence of outs of 18 at least once every 1000bets,
haha MACCA... mongrel bloody horse!!!
MARTINGALE is a very good betting adaption that is used by a lot of PPS who are "punting on the run". Ageless and solid principles... nowadays they run MARTINGALE on betting flucs... which is pretty much an essay in itself!!!
I understand where you are coming from exbookie but its horse racing not roulette.
Sounds like fun, I'm all for progressive betting, it might be a fair bit safer/profitable to bet to a target rather than straight double ups. That way, every winner gives you a profit, and you don't stare down situations where you've lost 6 bets, and are about to put $1600 on the 7th bet @ $1.50.
Martingale...oh dear. Every now and then it rears it's head and never seems to be dead and buried.
It's fundamentally flawed on so many levels. You might be OK for a while (which justifies it in the mind of the user) then the inevitable occurs at some point and the risk of ruin lurks like the grim reaper.
Vice...45% remains 45%...irrespective of the medium that creates it.
That's true. Maybe i'd stand a better chance on roulette, lol.
Interesting reading all your thoughts on this topic.
The only thing I know of that can bring you undone assuming you get odds of 2/1 are a max bet limit (which is why the casinos have this) or a huge run of outs. This system has been tried and tested in the casinos but you will never win, eventually you'll hit a 13+ run of reds/blacks and go bust (you'll also hit the max bet early on which will ruin the system).
+'s for this system with the popular pick
With the popular pick you don't have the max bet problem assuming your bookie(s) let you get on up to $12k+
The largest run of outs ever recorded with the popular pick is 8 (not the 18 or so that exbookie mentions) - there has been about five cases where there was 5 losses in a row. So although it's not impossible to get more I think it's safe to say that's about the most you can expect.
-'s for the popular pick with this system
The only flaw I can see is if you double up to a large amount such as $1600 and have a red hot favourite at $1.40 - Using Betfair you may be able to get better odds which minimises the loss. But it can go the other way too and end up at $3.60 - so you may need a little luck as to what day your big bets fall on but I think you'll find it will balance out in the long term.
the popular pick today wouldve landed you 1.50 but any profit is a profit nonetheless..
Precisely the flaw i mentioned above although you would have only placed a $50 bet because King Thing won two day's ago paying $2.80 - which also balances things out with the larger price. You might have been able to get $3.20 or more on Betfair.
yeah but still KAGAN you put $50 away in the kitty and keep rolling with ya $25... can never lose when you win huh!!
would be interesting in the future when we can mark a horse as our best "roughie" and see how the system stacks up on the Each Way with a bit of value thrown about.
You could lose if you get less than 2/1 with this system. But as I mentioned previously the horses that win at bigger odds tend to account for the odds on horses.
Today is a perfect example as you would have outlayed $100 worth of bets in the past three days and made about $150 return - so an average of $25 profit for each of the 2 winning days which is how it's supposed to work. Needs to be tested some more but the results look good so far.
if after the 8th horse wins like kagan says,you have already outlayed 3175dollars if its even money your profit will be 25dollars,if it payed 1.5o like today your behind 775dollars,your right vice its not roulette,but if each selection you choose has the same value,your outlaying 1600dollars on the 7th selection and 25 on your first selection,it would certainly put a lot of pressure on your psyche to back up and put 1600 on the next,then 3200 then 6400,just to win 25dollars profit over all.
you are right EX but i guess we are applying the principle to the POPULAR PICK which is showing a 45% strike rate... will be good to see how it goes in the near future... KAGAN could you also provide some more data after a few months.. like strike rate and average price of winner as well as the profit/loss results?
We'll get around to this stuff soon chilli. Massive stuff in the pipeline, it's about to burst!
exbookie that's just how the system goes but I don't reckon you'll get up to 8 losses in a row again (it's not impossible but the popular pick seems to be getting better not worse). You could end up whacking that $3175 on a $3.50 shot too - so it can go both ways...
My advice would be to start with a $1500 betting bank. When it gets to $3000 take $1500 out so you have nothing to lose. You only need a good run for about one ot two months using Betfair to get back your $1500 investment.
sounds good mate... i need a good bursting!
Chilli, you're right with on with the 'best roughie' concept thought about it a few times , but the old story of loose lips may just well turn a 'best roughie' into a favourite....