Has anybody got the same opinon to me D.Nikolic is riding poor.He seems to miss the boat on alot of his chances now a day.
I for one would like for him to be on the same plane G.Boss was on and go back to Melbourne for good.
what medication are you on raven??...that hack was spent 200 out.....a b-double semi could have fit through that gap!!!!
why put nikolic on it in the first place? & if he's that bad then dont tip him!!!!.......he went ok for me when he's ridden horses & not mules!!....does 'mummify' ring a bell???
Your spot on Diva. All top jockeys go through a rough patch and Nikolic is going through his. He is first class and he has ridden some beaut rides eg: Mummify- 03 CC, Reset, Our Smoking Joe, Forensics-Coolmore and Zipping. You could bag other jockeys for the same reasons eg: Craig Williams, Craig Newitt, Cassidy brothers, Steve Arnold and a host of others.
Didn't tip either of them Diva Girl, my tips were Centre Arena and Mr Unforgettable. HANDSUPFORDETROIT was a very poor ride he missed the start, the horspe pulled double for the first 500 off a slow pace and Nikolic made no effort to look for a run on the outside till well in the straight and was consequently disapointed for a run. he then had to switch course with about 150 to go and the poor horse worked gamely to the line when the race was all over. TMark Shean commented over the line that "Handsupfordetroit should have won by as far as you can kick your hat" so I wasn't the only one who thought the horse a victum of an ordinary ride.
As for Anatomice which I assume is the horse that you are claiming was "spent 200 out... a b-double semi could have fit through that gap" then one need only to refer to the stewards report that indicates that u must be either mistaken or have watched the wrong horse:
“On the home turn Anatomica had to be restrained off the heels of Kennys world….Anatomica was held up for a run until inside the 200m and was again held up on the heels of Spirilina and consequently restrained over the final 50m.
as you can see my claim that Anatomica was a fav "going to the line pulling" is confirmed by the evidence from the steward's report ie: Antomica was "restrained over the final 50"
This hardly supports your claim that a b-double semi could have gone through the gap.
Anyway its great to see u expressing an opinion and I have been very impressed by the great value you are finding in your tips. I hope u are able to win the monthly comp Divagirl as you certainly have the tipping prowess to do so.
In the ability stakes Nikolic is a top line jockey, however his share of "bad luck" on horses that are short in the market is a bit of a worry and he is entitled to some criticism when a rider with such great capabilities seems to ride like an apprentice on well fancied horses.
'raven'..please excuse me....i stand corrected...the horse i was thinking of was 'amberino'....had a bit tooooo many last night....'i've even got the state wrong!!!! ......& my apologies about the medication bit....i think i'l make sure im sober at all times when i type in here....first time i've been pickled for about 4 months!!! ..& thanks for the comments (that i didnt deserve at the time)....im very sorry... I WAS WRONG
You are a credit to the forum Diva Girl with that reply. Its very nice of you to admit to making an error its very rare for people to admit that they were mistaken over an issue on a "forum".
I think its great that punters defend jockeys as lets face it they risk life and limb to ride horses so that we can enjoy the sport and at the end of the day they are very brave and talented ahtletes who deserve our respect. I agree that Danny Nik is a very good jockey, his ride on Bellagio Wynn (all be it on a roughie) in the race after Anatomica was as good as any and he nearly stole the Summer Cup on an unfancied horse. However despite their bravery I do think that jockeys are open to criticism if they do certain things in races that leaves a bitter taste in a punters mouth. But even when I criticise them for what I beleive are at times shady practices I still uphold the bigger picture that punters should respect the risks that jockeys take to "put on the show".
I don’t have any problem with Nikolic. I’m looking at roughly his last 250 rides that were in the top 4 in the market and he’s won 50 of them, returning POT of 7%
That’s great form in my book.
Interesting figures there Marc and I hope that your luck with Nikolic continues, you are certainly on fire on the tipping ladder. I can only deal with individual cases as they come along, (ie like the above mentioned horses) and its great that you can provide a positive slant on Nikolic with your ROI figures.
I have just done a check at racingandsports on Nikolic's performance on his last 25 rides on favourites.
In the city he has had 26 rides on favourites for 5 winners. and a return at SP of 11.95 units which is a loss of 13.05 units and a negative ROI of around 50%.
His figures for the provincials are similar. His last 26 rides on favourites have seen him ride 5 winners for a return of 16.7 units at SP or a loss of 9.3 units which is a negative ROI of around 30%.
So these figures would indicate that if you had backed nikolic on his last 52 rides on favourites in the metro/city area you would have had 52 bets for 10 winners (a strike rate of only 18 to 19%) and a flat stake loss of 22.3 units, or 44% on turnover.
The beauty of racing is that it allows punters to have freedom of choice and opinion. Make of these figures what you will but I beleive that they provide solid evidence that is is wise to be careful before putting your money down on a favourite ridden by Nikolic in his current form.
I will try and paste these figures on the next post and at worse will provide the link whereby these stats can be viewed by those who are interested.
Yes I agree that if you break it down to just favourites then he isn’t returning a profit but I think it would be hard for any jockey to maintain a positive return on just favourites.
As you rightly say, the beauty of racing is that it allows punters to have freedom of choice and opinion.
Hopefully he can ride a treble today, was on (am on) 4 out of his 5 today just the way the form fell, 2 winners from 3 so far for him, good chnace on Another Nip n the last aswell.
Better of backing him on Betfair to not run a place made a good return on him over the past few mths
big day for the danny free horses HANDSUPFORDETROIT and ANATOMICA!
Anatomica held on well, I had the runner-up
Same doctor was on First Look myself, its amazing how "luck" works in racing, as both these horses that were "unlucky" with the "same" jockey at their last starts have won today.
Such is the rational understanding regarding the seemingly essential irrational factor of "luck" that punters were willing to put the money on at fairly short odds this saturday and miraculously both are "lucky" this week.
ps well done to those who backed them and may all your bets be free from the mysterious force of "unluckiness"
raven if your wondering why nikky boy is riding better you should buy a copy of the winning post , my mum loves it , i read it for the laughs , but it did put nikky boy right under the pump , put a spotlight on his BAD LUCK .
"nikky boy is riding better" ???? i was under the impression that nikolic was not on either of these today.
I gave up buying the winning post after reading one of the most pathetic articles i have ever read by one Paul Richads where in the week before the caulfield cup he headed his column with the claim that WEEKEND HUSSLER was a better horse than Kingston Town. Glad you are getting plenty of laffs out of it because with imbeciles like Richards writing rubbish like that its only genuine use is to line wastepaper baskets
sorry thats what i mean , hes going much better because hes not on em , at least he cant stuff them up , my ex wife always said i had a weird sence of humour . the winning post is by far the worst racing paper ive read , i cant believe these clowns get paid to wright that rubbish . even the guy who nad a go at nikky boy kissed his but for 95% of the article. hard to believe really
we are in agreeance re the winning post macca. no wonder that they keep pushing it as being a benefit to the charity DOXA, because its not much benefit to anyone else.
put it this way , if i see a horse named in highlights in the winning post i wouldnt touch it with a flag pole. if i had the spare time i would check the strike rate of these cursed horses . id take evens on under 10%
Isn't it intresting to see last 2 starts ANATOMICA no D.Nickolic it has WON.
The old saying is when you are Hot you are Hot and when you are not you are not.So old Danny boy must be living in the North Pole.
Danny got me again when he ran down Madame Pedrille on Unordered. It was a good ride by Danny and he seems to have studied the nature of "unluckiness" very well. If u saw how "unlucky" he was on UNORDERED first up you wouldn't have been surprised to see UNORDERED run such a great race yesterday after Danny started to work towards the outside BEFORE the home turn and hey presto! Unordered was nicely into the clear when they straightened and avoided being unlucky. Come to think of it ANATOMICA was out wide when it won at Randwick on saturday and avoided the "unlucky" factor by getting away from the fence in the run.
Maybe there is some hope of forming an equation in regard to the likliehood of a horse's chance of suffering from "unluckiness" in the run:
The degree to which a horse is likely to suffer from "unluckiness" increases in the same proportion to the jockey's UNWILLINGNESS to start moving a well fancied runner AWAY from the rail as the horses begin to negotiate the home turn say from the 650 onwards.
So in order to avoid "unluckiness" a lucky jockey will begin navigating away from the rail at every opportunity from the 650 onwards so that the horses chances of building momentum by the home turn and obtaining a clear run to the post are increased thereby reducing the chance of being unlucky.
Inversely the Jockeys failure to start getting off the fence as the horses begin to negotiate the run in will increase the likelihood of being cluttered and losing momentum, whilst the "lucky" horses are either making their runs down the outside or trying to hang on and kick away if leading.
Its just a theory and I'll be watching it with interest, and sometimes even the stewards might make a remark about "unluckiness" as they did to PENZA the other day at Gosford when, after riding 3 well fancied and “unlucky-free” runners to victory at MORUYA the day before, all of whom raced away from the rail and enjoyed unimpeded runs to the post, his mount MOSSANAY heavily backed from 5/2 to 13/8 was labelled most "unlucky" after Penza ignored an opportunity to get off the fence at the 500 and decided to wait on the rail:
When questioned regarding his riding of Mossanay, and in particular the reason why he did not come to the outside of the heels of Angel Of Hope making home turn, J Penza stated that near the 500m he was racing to the inside of that runner's heels which he observed was under pressure and being ridden along with the whip and he was of the view that in the early part of the straight he would be able to shift that runner out to obtain clear running. He said making the home turn he applied pressure to Angel Of Hope to shift that runner out, however when that runner did not weaken as anticipated, he was obliged to checkhis mount when disappointed for this run at the 200m. He added in hindsight the better option would havebeen to have come back near the 500m and shift out around the heels of Angel Of Hope which would have afforded him clear running sooner
Even though the punters left their money in the bag, and the "unlucky" Penza admitted to making an incorrect decision, Penza was left to twaddle off and was not penalised in any way whatsoever for what must be regarded as a very poor ride.
Such is the attitude towards "unluckiness" in racing.
such is the attiude in australia , the stewards are a joke here and they should be questioned as to why they do nothing
im sorry but i have to disagree and say you may be speaking through your wallet. Rock Me Baby when gets to the front fights like a bulldog! Shes a very talented filly! better then her rivals today! The ride helped also, but Rio Oso had it's chance.
Ahh the pocket, how it sings, thought exactly how you did Frappe but instead I got the trifecta 5 times good onya Danny
Not a fan of Nikolic... instructions were to try and slot Marchinski in preferably 4th or so, the horse is a natural jump & run from the gate.. he took it upon himself to snag the horse back to last and gave it absolutely no chance... wont be riding him again...
In saying what I have, Iam not really a Nikolic fan either! N Rawiller ON FIRE!