|1||EL SEGUNDO (NZ)||Colin Little||Steven King||6||58.5||121|
|2||MR BARITONE (NZ)||Michael Moroney||Steven Arnold||7||58.5||108|
|3||LIGHT FANTASTIC||Mick Price||Craig Newitt||1||58.5||111|
|4||COCINERO||Robbie Griffiths||Nicholas Hall (a)||3||58.5||100|
|5||LUCKY SECRET||Tony Vasil||Danny Brereton||4||58.5||109|
|6||MIND YOUR HEAD||John Ledger||Mark Pegus||5||58.5||102|
|7||VON COSTA DE HERO||David Hayes||Kerrin McEvoy||2||55||98|
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hahah Money... he is a nutcase isnt he... was cursing him every step last start... didnt think he was ever going to win... was an unbelievable effort!!! Imagine what kind of horse he could be if he actually enjoyed racing??
TAB Sportsbet's market, as at Thursday morning, for the $180,000, Group 2, WFA Carlyon Stakes (1200m) at Moonee Valley on Friday evening.
Light Fantastic has firmed into $2.70, from $2.80, and Lucky Secret has gone out to $2.90 from $2.80.
Sportsbet No. Runner Win Place
34053 LIGHT FANTASTIC 2.70 0.00
34055 LUCKY SECRET 2.90 0.00
34056 MIND YOUR HEAD 3.80 0.00
34057 VON COSTA DE HERO 10.00 0.00
34051 EL SEGUNDO 10.00 0.00
34052 MR BARITONE 23.00 0.00
34054 COCINERO 26.00 0.00
Go you Beautiful powerful wonderful horse.Five bets Five wins and tnr is OOOZING confidence. Hell win.
i hope SEGUNDO powers late int he last 50m and snatches it away from everyone... that would be special!!
i have been waiting 18 months for the return of el segundo regardless of where he finishes its still a special moment he trully is a champ.class field though.my money will be on him pureley for loyalty come on get behind him
who won the race last year ?
Let Go Thommo
El Segundo for me if he is anywhere near fit. Always puts in a big first up effort, this isn`t the strongest Carlyon field ever assembled although there are some handy types there is only one proven G1 horse here and one potential G1 horse. The rest are weak G2 to G3 class. Although they have the fitness edge i believe the class will shine through.
Just a little note on Mind Your Head.. trainer says he has come of age and has settled expecting big things from this horse now he has fully matured..will be chasing hard ..biggest threat is Lucky Secret.
I remember listening to Sport927 years back when John Ledger declared Mind Your Head as a certainty! Said he was a group one horse & today he would show it. I think it was at Caulfield. From that day on the horse has done everything in his power to prove Ledger wrong! And you must take into account that Ledger is a pure horseman, he does lots of pre training for the big boys like Mick Price.. Have to agree Chilli if the horse just liked to race...
Pretty sure I read somewhere that the Vasil stable think with the run under its belt they believe they have Mind Your Head covered.. Very intriguing race!
Here are some extremely relevant stats for you. I think we can all draw the conclusion that MV is a specialists track now:
BIG EL: Moonee Valley- 7starts for 4wins and 2 placings. 1200m- 6starts 2wins 3 placings. Firstup: 6 starts for 2 wins and 3 placings.
MR B: MV- 6s for 3w + 2p 1200m: 16s for 3w + 7p. Firstup 6s for 2w + 2p
LIGHT F- MV 1s for 1w 1200m 1s for 1w Firstup:2s for 2w
LUCKY S- MV 6s for 5w 1p 1200m 3s for 3w First up 5s for 2w 2p
MIND YA NOGGIN: MV 3s for 1w 1200m: 9s 2w + 1p.
That is some damning statistics lads... Mind your Head we can forgive the statistical vulnerability as he is a nutcase and is only know showing us some of what we can do... but still he will not get away with the little show he put on last start at the VALLEY, so still think he is least suited here.
Quite obviously stats are telling us that LUCKY SECRET is slightly vulnerable first up but after that he owns the valley and the 1200m and if we arent backing him we are stupid stupid stupid stupid... that stupidity is from a statistical point of view of course...
so statistically i reckon we can nail the field in order here...
1st: Lucky Secret
2nd: El Segundo
3rd: Light Fantastic
4th: Mr Baritone
5th: Mind Ya head
6th: Von Costa
El segundo gets the nod ahead of LF due to more exposed form at the VALLEY. Mind Ya Head loses out to Mr B for same reason.
So now we work in the odds on offer and we would all be stupid stupid stupid if we didnt have something on Mr Baritone to cause an upset... his statistical odds in comparison with his big odds is very big value.
i liked light fan until i saw it on the front page of the winning post , could there be a worse kiss of death ?
I'd liek to see El win but my money will be on Mind Ya Head price is fair and it's a decent show.
I would also like to see El win and have a small wager there... but my money will be on Lucky Secret... I guess Chilli's stats point out some of the reasons why.
agree with that mrsgreen
im expecting lucky secret to win von costa a good 2nd mind your head, light fantastic and mr baritone to fight out a close up 3rd,4th,5th im sorry and its hard for me to say this but i think el segundo will run in the last 2. i think ive got how the race will be run and thats what ive come up with
would be awsome to see big el win... love the horse
mind your head showing over $10 on nsw tab ill have some of that(lucky secret will die on its run ast 50metres ??/)
Von Costa was bolting with nowhere to go. He has talent but must be a headcase. The leader/track specialist did the business.
i managed to get the tri 10x thought it may have paid a little more with MYH not in the first 3 cost me $60 so nice enough profit from an easy race altough did stand fuduchonne 1 out in2 lucky secret 1 out in2 field field for %50 quad so thers $55 gone lets hope the roughies dont get up in the last 2
rikbat in the next front runner and gauci leaders track and great front running jockey
Last two on top - staring at Unitab treble straight out.
Last race of the night Black Artois second up and this distance suits if it gets over from its wide draw will be right amongst them.
shattered! had $25 E/w on american morsecode, nearly had a heart failure in the last 50
If there's anyone out there who likes taking exactas, it might be worth considering buying my tips for tomorrow and trying to pick the winner yourself... ha... seriously!
HorseMiller im feeling confident for tomorrow if you want try my tips, my system paying dividends atm you never know a day off from your own selections might turn it around for you, picked 5 out of 6 in moonee valley tonight.