CAULFIELD CUP - 1 PICK AND WHY
The standard Caulfield Cup all others need to be compared against is Tulloch's 1957 when he carried wfa won by 4 lengths (ever increasing) as a 3yo starting at 4/6 and ran a world record for one and a half miles.
BOOKMAKERS ARE TOO GENEROUS WHEN OFFERING ODDS ABOUT OUTSTANDING HORSES IN BIG HANDICAP RACES.
In 1957 Tulloch was considered a certainty and the bookies would have been rushedat fours on($1.25).
Today it is Weekend Hussler I want to look at. As I am typing this I am watching
astute punters backing him from $5.50 to $4.60.
Let us forget his last run. He would be around 4/6 had he won last start as expected.But he didn't, so we need to analyse where we are at . drew wide , had options go forward, easback or kick up and hope to get in or at least get cover. Tactics backfired. Covered enormous extra ground around Caulfield. Was not pushed out to the line once beaten.
Tomorrow is a fast run handicap. The field will string out . The Hussler can be put wherever the jockey wants him. At some point turnig for home Rawiller will release the brakes. If he stays the distance(and nobody knows) he will do a Might and Power.
Either way bookies are offering way over the odds right now. It would be downright rude of me to refuse their generosity.
Or because he had everything go his way last start and still didn't win...
I noticed Sean Bartholmew layed Chop Chop to LOSE $1 million because he thought it wouldn't make the field. Now he is tipping it as one of the top chances.
Biter sweet for SEAN Whiz... would hate to be owning that lay mate!!!
I understand what you are saying MILLER... i really dont think everything went his way mate but the pertinant point is the drop in weight... if he was carrying 54 or above i wouldnt be that keen on him but i am amazed that he is going around here with 51.5kgs... , im assuming he is on the improve after his last run and i reckon even i could settle ok in running with 51.5 kgs on my back!!
Do you guys honestly think he can win this race? Did you watch his previous runs? Maybe I am missing something but I think he deserves to be longer than $10, especially after drawing the carpark. He has done nothing much to impress, he has just been average. If he had 54kg no one would be interested.
That is just my opinion. I would be shocked if he won, but I think he can figure in the placings if he runs to potential & gets some luck.
What's your opinion on the 3 week back up Whiz? I've heard Hayes say he's done it to 'take the edge off him and help him settle', but it's another question mark on him as far as I'm concerned. 3 weeks of tough racing.
Personally I am off Guillotine for a few reasons, 2 of which are manners and barrier draw. While I like horses to be hard fit going into these races, he has had harder runs. Master O'Reilly for example is hard fit but has had a much more comfortable prep to get to the race (didn't have to qualify of course) in my opinion. Might have played his grand final too early?
Have been a fan of the horse and will throw him in my tri's, but it will be tough from out there. Like Lightred said, with luck and potential he is in the mix.
Weight pull is big plus, bad barrier a massive negative.
resumes with a win over 1300m steps up into a G2 mile and wins with 58.5kgs second up... pulls hard in the running over a G1 2000m and holds on for a respectable 3.5l 5th to the best in the land... 4th up with significant gear change and runs a bottler third at WFA with 58?? geez you are a hard task master mate
He'll beat the hussler home anyway chilli! Good luck mate.
Ken Callender tipped Guillotine to win. So you can pretty much be certain now that he wont win! hahaha
If you feel passionately about this horse dont let anyone talk you out of it. Just put its form into perspective, you mentioned it "ran a bottler 3rd at WFA with 58kg" - there was only 7 horses in the race! The winner was duro valley, 2nd pompei ruler who is now retired hurt. The other 4 were making up the numbers.
Just an interesting point here also, 5 of the past 6 CC winners were last start winners AND four of those were carrying 54kg or less. Littorio fits that category very nicely. Genuine Stayer with a great barrier. Another stat for you, there has only been 4 winners at double figure odds in the past 20 years. Littorio is certainly the sensible bet.
I am really keen to see how Red ruler goes. Seen some replays and he is a weapon! well weighted & C.Brown is on. Currently @ $17 odds & a good one for multiples.
Absolutely mate .... i still reckon they are getting into the HUSSLER to push LITTORIO out in the market and then get stuck into it!!!
Im very distressed that Kenny has jumped on chop chop... will blow out to 20s now.... im not jumping on CHOP CHOPs back mate im just saying he is overs thats all... in saying that i do enjoy overs on a savers bet...
Chop chop now has the kenny callender curse haha Mate knowing my lucky it will probably win!!
It is such a tough race to pick ay! Weekend Hussler just throws a spanner in any form guides too because he has no right to win but he is a freak & capable of doing it.
I love these kind of discussions though because it may help us all pick the winner!
I just had $25e/w on littorio. I will probably throw on a little trifecta tomorrow too but wont be outlaying much money on this race.
yeah lightred it certainly helps with perspective mate.... HUSSLER will need to be a freak to win this... on one hand i hope he does cos that would be awesome... on the other hand (which holds the wallet) geez i hope he doesnt... ive gotten into this race in a big way lightred!! goiung to have a big F4 and trifecta to boot... i reckon ive got it somewhat sussed!!
Zagreb if it comes home like it did last win at caulfield light weight and Boss is capable of racing well on big days.
well aj... they are getting stuck into ZAGREB and LITTORIO now so you could be on the right path...
Chilli - I hope it works out for your wallet! I will be kicking back and enjoying this race. Im just not brave enough to load up anything.
My old man thinks Zagreb is the winner. I havent followed him so its hard for me to get on now. watched a few replays of his past runs & he can motor! Good draw, good jockey, good weight! there has been some big money come for him too.
As usual Chilli you make a solid point. The form is solid as a rock for Chop Chop. No question.
But he has done a fair bit already, has he got a CC left in the tank? He is bred to love this stuff, but he has his work cut out for him against this bunch, especially from the barrier.
For mine the winner comes from 1, 3, 12, 13. Throw in 9, 14, 16, 17, 18 for the Tri/F4.
Definitely bad barrier for Chop Chop, hussler carrying too much weight cant win, cmon ZAGREB!!!!
Thats the thing WHIZ and might i add a very astute thought.....that is the main reason i am eyeing him off.... it is also the main reason i am wary of him.... it is an unknown commodity, in fact he isnt even proven over the 2400m and has never had a 5 run prep... BUT for some reason none of us seem to doubt his ability to stay the trip... if you remember the DERBY he reefed and pulled his way into 5th... you watch that replay and you just know if he wanted to win it he could have... its X factor mate.. when i rate my horses i look for the one that could win by a big space and chop chop is the only one that on paper can do that and to be honest he is sticking out like dogs.... He is a lightly raced 4yr old who is deep into his first serious prep... he ran the older horses to less than a length with 58kgs last time out and obviously meets them a lot better here... he also meets LITTORI 6kgs better than the last time they met when he pulled his head off in the TURNBULL... he could reef and tear and run last mate but as it stands he is the only one in this field that can make the CAULFIELD CUP a non-event!! and they are giving you 13-1 to find out...
Well I put chopper in my tri with my melb cup horse Nom Du Jeu as first selections and have the new Zealand Horses with Zagreb to run the placings .IT is interesting to note in this morning paper all the top trainers[ Hayes Freeman etc ]pick the New Zealand Horses and there main pick was Boundless they said this year has produced a good crop of horses and I have now doubt they would be pretty close on the mark 'which writes my tri's out' but we will have to see ,..good luck to all and I hope someone can pick the winner ,don't blame the jockey if you lose it is the horse under him that has to get there, but you can blame the track ,the winning post being in the wrong place when your horse is in front or the horse takes a liking to someone in the crowd.best of luck .
Can someone please enlighten me on Mad Rush? looks good to me, howvever with the always present 'did it travel well?' cloud over it. Ice Chariot is my smokey as im a qlder and love a good smokey. Cant explain why but i cant warm to Littorio or the NZ horses. Logic tells me Lttorio is the safe bet and maybe after lunch ill settle on that but for now I like the 3 and 18. Got to love this day though much fun to be had making arguments for every horse (except Fiumicino). Every bit as good as the melbs this year as Hussler wont be there in November and i doubt today but will have the public behind him. Hell recession looming we need our Phar Lap.
Mad Rush is trained by Luca Cumani (of Purple Moon fame), it travelled well and has been in Australia nearly a month with All The Good and Bauer to aclimatise it that bit better. Damien Oliver is to ride the horse and has stated yesterday that it will improve for the Melbourne Cup on anything it does today. He has won 2 races from 8 starts with his best performance a last start 2ND against group 2 company in France. The rest of its runs in England have been at Class 3 & 4 level which i rate the equivalent of a Rst (72) to Rst (82) in Australia. It`s best credential is a win 2 starts back carrying 60.5 Kg over 2396m on a slow track, beating Young Mick. All the other horses that have placed around this one i have never heard of. Master O`Reilly has too much weight, Douro Valley is a better bet. Guillotine is easily the best weighted horse in the race when you compare what he has to carry and what is required of him to win the race. The wide gate will not hamper his efforts in a 2400M race the only worry is getting him to settle as pulls in his races.
I am really warming to Zagreb's chances today
Great discusion so i thought i'd make my first post here :) . I agree that Guillotine would not surprise here. Sure he's had his problems with settling , but last run with the changes in gear he didn't pull once. Sure he has 21, he also drops from 58 > 51.5!! MAL & MAD RUSH will cart him across from their barriers of 18 & 17. L Carmani said he would like MR to be in the first half dozen. so GUILLOTINE can use a bit of petrol early to get a position because of his featherweight.
that being said LITTORIO just needs to sit on the HUSSLER like he did in the Turnbull...peel out and go wave goodbye. Also the NZ horses RED RULER, BOUNDLESS & NOM DE JOUR should be right there. All in all im really looking forward to a great race....Fantastic time of Year i must say!!!
anyway thats my 2cents
RIVA SAN because still room for improvement on last run
RIVA SAN because still room for improvement on last run
There is alot of talk about Mad Rush think i will have to put something on him. But im sticking with Guillotine from Nom De Jour and Littorio with Douro Valley to hang on for third or fourth. And something cheeky on my smokey Ice Chariot. Just like the melbs a little bit spread across the field and one final plunge on whatever i swing for before they jump. About to leave work and head to the pub for a great race. and whatever i win goes on flushing meadows in brisbane