AAMI Victoria Derby
|1||WHOBEGOTYOU||Mark Kavanagh||Michael Rodd||4||55.5|
|2||CARNERO||Dean Binaisse||Shane Dye||3||55.5|
|3||REBEL RAIDER||Leon Macdonald||Clare Lindop||15||55.5|
|4||PRE EMINENCE||Mick Price||Craig Newitt||1||55.5|
|5||THE TIGER||Colin & Cindy Alderson||Rhys McLeod||10||55.5|
|6||WOOKAH||David Hayes||Corey Brown||8||55.5|
|7||TUSCANY VIEW||Greg Lesnikowski||Dwayne Dunn||2||55.5|
|8||BUFFETT (NZ)||Danny O'Brien||Damien Oliver||5||55.5|
|9||LARRY'S NEVER LATE (NZ)||Rodney Douglas||James Winks||6||55.5|
|10||ST CULPE||Michael Moroney||Greg Childs||11||55.5|
|11||ORCA||Guy Walter||Danny Nikolic||12||55.5|
|12||RELENTLESS LAD (NZ)||Graeme Rogerson||Jim Cassidy||14||55.5|
|13||PADDY O'REILLY (NZ)||Russell Cameron||Glen Boss||9||55.5|
|14||MY SCOTSGREY (NZ)||Shaune Ritchie||Craig Williams||13||55.5|
|15||FLASH'N DOUGH||Stephen Theodore||Jason Benbow||7||55.5|
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hey tricky i can see the big grey KIWI wilting here... and not just because WILLIAMS is on it either... i reckon he will range up and when WILLIAMS goes for the accelarator there wont be much there... he still might outstay them into third but i dont reckon he is much of a show at FLEMINGTON... im like the opposite of VAZEY my gut not my logic reckons he will drop out in the big straight.... I like LARRYS NEVR LATE and in particular PRE EMINENCE to be the dangers to WHOBEGOT... if there are any dangers?? but LARRY is the most impressive for the trip i thought and at 12 or 17-1 depending on where you are shopping he looks to be a really nice place bet!!
Im with you buddy......... Gee Im hoping we have a big day.....
thanks for the advice chilli i dont think there is a danger to the fav either just thought the 1.70 was good value the grey to beat home paddy o'reilly
I guess its a bit like looking for the horse you reckon will run second.......and hope WHOBEGOTYOU dosnt make the trip. He will come from last to first and it will be a massive run if he can win it. I actually like the looks of MY SCOTSGREY at flemington........the way he mowed the ground off THE TIGER when no other did was very impressive and I can see him being the main danger to WHOBEGOTYOU
Chilli I think you are right Larrys never Late is looking for this distance ,he has been in training for staying races and with Winks onboard he is the danger to WBGU .I think WBGU will be wanting over the last 100m and thats where he will get caught if they come with a late charge. Keep an eye out for Rods other runners on Sat and Tues he has some good horses that may find the line.
yeah MONEY... im pretty sure you and I will be on a lot of the same nags on Saturday mate and it will be a MASSIVE day!!
just check the weather forcast for melbourne..........rain every next 7 days
Sat I guess will be dead at best; cup? oats?
any opinions on how that might alter the outcomes
Think the track is destined to be dead at best with or without rain Vazey...especially on Cup Day. Huey sending a bit down from the heavens only serves to reduce the Club's water bill! If he drops the whole bucket on Tuesday though, then NDJ and CLG rather enjoy getting their feet wet.
I hears the track will resemble a crater when the Meteor hits
Yep CEO, two track records for one so young is pretty damn special. Trouble is, the rice paddy makers or weather gods may conspire to prevent him from racking another. Hope the ground doesn't impair or dull his explosiveness as it can be breathtaking watching something really sizzle.
With the prospect of dark clouds for the Cup, I should have mentioned that V goes OK too. What a fitting stage this race would be for Bart's 250th G1 milestone (if he doesn't happen to reach it on Sat). And an even dozen MCups just for good measure!
According to Class & Weight ratings the fair market is: $2.70 Whobegotyou, $8.50 Buffett, $26.00 Pre Eminence, Larry`s Never Late,Tuscanny View & The Tiger & there endeth the chances. While they show Whobegotyou a clear favourite the $1.70 is short for a horse not proven over the distance in that case i`d rather watch or back one of the others at odds each way and hope he can`t run the 2500m.
So going on them Ratings, What price for a horse like um, lets see, G. Rogerson's 3yo?
Not that you really care CEO but Relentless Lad $51.00. Ratings aren`t for everyone and your obviously not into them but some of the others here have asked for and about them and this forum is for them too.
Steve Ratings are terrific in terms of sorting a market and looking for overs. I think your ratings work well, and usually do work well. It takes time to go over each runner mate. Your contribution is invaluable.
I mean look at us. We are awake at 3am, I am going through some videos, you are doing the ratings. WE ARE PASSIONATE. Good Luck Derby day mate.
Good luck to you too. Obviously we are both insomniacs. The rason i actually posted that market was to show what we are being offered about Whobegotyou is not a fair price for a horse who has a question mark at the difference. He is the obvious choice and probably the winner of the race but as a pro punter you want to back him at those prohibative odds. I don`t rate all the races just selected ones in the city last week rated last 7 races had 5 winners 1 second & 1 unplaced. I`ve modified somewhat from the Scott principle and while last week was better than normal i would say mine are more accurate than what a rival site puts up as Scott ratings.
So Scott is a maestro on Ratings? I have seen his ratings, but I find it hard to digest. Transgress if you will...
That should be a question mark at the distance and you wouldn`t want to be backing him at the $1.70 as its clearly too short is what i meant. It must be late, i need my beauty sleep, not that it will work. Lol.
You are ok Steve, add me as a mate and wait for November, when I kick in. I have a big month ahead.
He is regarded as the father of class and weight ratings here in Australia although i believe he ripped them off from elsewhere. I have changed and updated some of his theories. I have changed how many kg there is between each class as per the new benchmark class system introduced last year. Scott believed 1.5kg = 1 length at all distances, i do not. If you carry a 10kg bag of potatoes to the checkout it doesn`t take much out of you. If you then carry them home 2km it takes much more out of you. i use 0.4kg=1 length at 3200m while 1.5 kg = 1 length at 1000m. We also have a different end game. In Mr Scotts the horse with the highes weight is the winner and you continue down to the lowest weight to find the finishing order. I work out what each horses rating will be if it was to win then i subtract my expected rating from that. The horse with the least distance is winner the one with most distance between the two is last.
Steve are you feeling confident about your tips @ Flemington for the weekend after scoring a 50% win ratio last Saturday @ Moonee Valley ???
Yes considering i only had time to do ratings on last six races. Sorry mate didn`t see this earlier.
Buffet Lilydale-Steve is a good price and one I do think has a good chance inthis race will have to take a tri.
Did I read somewhere that Lindrop not riding well - OUCH.