I had something ew on Jakkalberry in the Melbourne Cup & on again here @ 21s. I notice 2 of the last 3 winners placed in the same race the year prior, so on that thought Tosen Jordan 2nd in 2011 21/1 & Jaguar Mail 3rd in 2011 80/1 can be included in calculations. Orfevre looks the one to beat, will get back in the field and motor home. Thinking the 2400m will be a touch short for Mount Athos to show his best but will be finishing on hard. My tips Orfevre, Tosen Jordan, Jakkalberry. Good Luck all.
niceprofits did i miss something here , my statement was nothing more than me stating that i haven't done the form on this race but i have noticed some horses that have placed in the year b4 have gone on to win the race in the next year ?
it is hard for horses to race at the top level month after month, especially when they are set for one particular race. Orfevre and Solemia were no doubt set for the Arc, one of the most prestigious racing events on the planet. That was just a month ago...the question is, can they back up? Orfevre - yes, Solemia - no. Japanese Oaks winner Gentildonna an interesting horse - running a quicker time (same c and d) than the Derby winner (similar conditions). Rulership, imo, ready to peak.
All good niceprofits , i read your comment and thought maybe you read it that i was saying no 1 here had any idea on form , sorry i was only stating i didn't do any form just had noticed some horses come back the next year like they do in the MLB CUP for another attack , i was looking for the form on the race but could,t find any.
I was all over Mount Athos in the Melbourne Cup, however, he is now up to weight for age and hasn't won at group 1 level, whereas Orfevre has won 5 group 1's and is coming off a great 2nd in the Arc (where to my eye he wasn't beaten on ability, moreso the fact he can be a nutjob and blew it)!
Orfevre is a freak and should have won Arc, think he had outside barrier from memory and it was an unsuitable bog track and still just missed. Probably good value at current odds, hope so anyway! Craig Williams' horse is the danger, he jumped off Red Cadeaux like a shot out of a gun when given the ride on Rulership. It should be a cracker
Orfevre is a Champion as I said (and a fingernail from winning this)...Mount Athos was under the odds...the Japanese know how to train stayers and it will be very interesting when they can come out agin for the Cup etc.
Gentildonna was only one of three popular Japaneses horses i backed ....... the only reason being is because these ( relatively ) unknown horses are always amazing value on the Australian tote , quite unlike the other well known horses which tend to be unders through weight of popular money ....... I was relieved the stewards enquiry came to nothing though :-)
All 3 placegetters from the same stable connections of Delta Blues Pop rock etc.The Japanese stayers are far superior to almost all of the ones from Europe we have to contend with for the Melbourne Cup.Most of these would not get near the Japanese stayers.I think those at the VRC know this as after the Quinella result with Japanese horses in the Melbourne Cup, they then set about making it extremely difficult for Japanese horses to contest the race.Using the excuse of Equine Influenza, which was prevailent in Australia not Japan.The VRC claims to make the Melbourne Cup a truly international event but then discriminates against some of the best stayers in the world from running in the race.I think their attitude borders on racism.Look at some of the hacks from Europe that gain a start in the Melbourne Cup .They would be lengths behind the Japanese horses .
@Hawkeye..I am not up to date with all the quarantine rules etc. that excluded all the Japanese horses coming out this year, but I agree with what you say. I even mentioned the Japanese training of stayers in a post a few months ago when the question was raised about Aussie stayers compared to the Europeans.
Although beaten today I would rate Orfevre in my top 4 of greats in the last 10 years! 1/2 - Frankel and Black Caviar 3. So you Think (patricularly before he went overseas). 4. Orfevre
I know that my selections for 3rd and 4th are going to be controversial...so be it...